By Zvikomborero Sibanda
In 2007/8, Zimbabwe experienced a record hyperinflation in modern economic history for a country in peacetime. The local unit was officially dumped by authorities in 2009 after it was rejected by the market as economic agents started to favour transacting in foreign currency dominated by the South African rand and the US dollar -the advent of dollarization reform (2009-2018). Although this reform relegated monetary policy arm of government, it instantly cooled inflationary pressures to an extent that the nation experienced a period of deflation.
After a decade, the government austerity measures and currency reforms which started in 2019 saw the re-branding of the ZWL, introduced through Statutory Instrument 33 (SI33) of 2019. The local unit was codenamed ‘Real Transfer Gross Settlement’ (RTGS) dollar comprising of all bond notes and coins in circulation, mobile money, and bank balances. On the first day of trading in the official interbank market early February, the RTGS dollar traded at ZWL/USD 2.50 before losing a staggering 62% of its value in only four (4) months to close June 2019 at ZWL/USD 6.60 (ZWL/USD 8.50 in alternative markets).
The continued excessive decline of the ZWL forced the promulgation of SI142 by Treasury on 24 June 2019 thus officially introducing the Zimbabwe dollar as sole legal tender for all domestic public and private transactions and settlements. It was however astonishing at the time that authorities could forge ahead with forced de-dollarization despite existence of a huge body of knowledge showing that successful de-dollarization only come when undertaken as a process not an overnight event.
Also, the deterioration of the currency was largely emanating not from the use of forex but from excessive ZWL liquidity growth in the market. For instance, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) statistics show high powered money supply popularly known as reserve money (M0) burgeoning by a mouth-watering 170% between December 2018 (ZWL3.3 billion) and December 2019 (ZWL8.8 billion).
High powered money holds the topmost position in monetary policymaking and since it is mostly currency in circulation with economic agents, it decides the level of liquidity and price level in the economy. As such, the management of high-powered money is thus very important to manage general price level.
Consequently, ZWL depreciation heavily persisted with the unit losing an average of 63% in official market before the re-introduction of fixed exchange rate regime in March 2020. By June 2020, perpetual decline of the ZWL in alternative markets influenced authorities to ditch a fixed regime in favour of the Dutch Forex Auction System. In its formative months, the auction system managed to bring sanity particularly in the alternative markets with the ZWL gaining some ground in the third quarter of 2020 (Q3:20).
Statistics show the ZWL reclaiming about 20% of lost value from an average of ZWL/USD 120 in July 2020 to ZWL/USD 100 in November 2020. The period also enjoyed a sustainable growth of money supply with reserve money growth registering a paltry 0.2% growth in Q3:20 relative 8.5% and 33% in Q2:20 and Q1:20 respectively. However, the stability was fragile as the nation returned to increased depreciation pressures in the Q4:20 partly in line with an unsustainable 47.4% jump in reserve money injected into the system.
Fast forward to 2022, currency instability remained a challenge for Zimbabwe with ZWL losing about 84.1% of its value against the USD from ZWL/USD 108.67 in December 2021 to ZWL/USD 684.33 in December 2022. In response, price inflation spiked during the same period from 60.7% to 243.8% (annual terms). Granular analysis show that apart from the unsustainable monetary aggregates, price inflation in 2022 also emanated from poor 2021/22 cropping season and the ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. A 2022 World Bank report show that at 353%, Zimbabwe had the highest food inflation globally. Also, the Bank estimated that about 40% of Zimbabweans were living in extreme poverty in 2022 as disposable incomes were decimated by ravaging inflation and income disparities magnified by a tattering currency.
After a brief moderation of ZWL decline in the parallel markets and inflation growth between July-October 2022, the trend reversed course starting in November 2022 likely because of elevated government spending associated with fourth quarter bonus payments and agriculture support as well as increased general demand. The local unit slid from ZWL/USD 800 in October to close December at ZWL/USD 900. In the same vein, monthly prices upscaled by 0.6 percentage points to close 2022 at 2.4% from 1.8% recorded in November. With so many risks to the 2023 economic outlook such as high corruption prevalence, general elections, unpredictable path of COVID-19 pandemic, and unending Russia-Ukraine war, it is likely that Zimbabwe will continue being trapped in vicious cycles of currency and price volatilities.
From the foregoing, one can conclude that Zimbabwe’s economic decay and entrenchment of citizens into poverty is largely emanating from poor economic management. This reasoning is informed by the fact that the country continues to experience increased forex generation. For instance, in 2022, Zimbabwe recorded its highest ever foreign currency receipts of US$11.6 billion dollars, up by 196% from the 2021 outturn of US$9.7 billion but ZWL plummeted in both markets. Generally, forex generation is regarded as crucial in aiding currency management and building of economic resilience.
Therefore, to put the ZWL and prices on a stable path authorities should consider some of the following alternatives:
Foster fiscal discipline: Unsustainable government spending leads to increased domestic borrowing which in turn crowds-out private sector investment and growth. All else constant, a flourishing private sector is key in employment creation, infrastructure development, output growth, and wealth creation. Also, monetization of unsustainable fiscal deficits, that is, government financing itself by issuing currency or non-interest bearing liabilities like bank reserves poses real risks. The risks include potentially high price inflation and encroachment on central-bank independence.
RBZ independence: A number of empirical studies have established that the more independent (ability to make monetary policies which are not dictated by political considerations) a central bank is, the lower the inflation it allows without injuring growth and employment goals. Also, a target and operationally independent RBZ will have more credibility which is essential in reducing inflationary expectations.
Increase Official Use of ZWL: In recent months, the government has increasingly shown lack of trust in its currency as many public services have been dollarized. Yet, the government is the single largest consumer in the market. A policy shift requiring most local payments in ZWL will propel demand and use of the ZWL in the market as well as increase market confidence in the local currency.
Agriculture sector: Generally, the Agric sector is the backbone of the Zimbabwean economy as it provides employment and income for 60-70% of the population and supplies about 60% of industrial raw materials. Also, food and beverages alone constitute about 30.1% of the all-items consumer basket. As such, the current financing model over relying on state support requires a complete revamp to ensure that citizens take farming as a business and reduce dependence on state. This will promote climate-smart agriculture.
Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM): Given her rich natural resource base, DRM will be one of the best ways of reducing Zimbabwe’s overdependence on borrowing and volatile aid. It also promote sustainable development as government fund its own development goals, finance gender-responsive public services, and reduce economic, social and gender inequalities.
Economic and Structural Reforms: The government should swiftly implement these reforms to improve competition and market price discovery. The existing public institutions require reconfiguration in terms of the quality of personnel, operational procedures, and methodologies. There is also a need to improve the quality of public taxation systems to encourage innovation and address the challenges of the poor population in the welfare state. More so, with reforms, fiscal authorities will be able to tighten public finance management systems to curb leakages from corruption and illicit transactions.
Policy Consultations and Consistency: An inclusive multi-stakeholder engagement is crucial in reviving the broken social contract between government and citizens. This helps to avoid the ineffective top-down approach to policy making which injures policy ownership by other economic agents. Policy consistency is also key in boosting market confidence and building public trust in policymakers as they become assured that authorities will not renege on their prior commitments.
Zvikomborero Sibanda is an economic analyst and an astute researcher. He writes in his personal capacity. He can be contacted via email:
br**********@gm***.com
Twitter: @bravon96